- The USD / CAD remains depressed in a context of general weakness of the US dollar.
- The weakness of the WTI against OPEC + the disagreement over the drop in production does not strengthen the pair.
- The G20 and the US IPC will be monitored for a new boost.
Although WTI remains depressed by lack of agreement to cut output, USD / CAD prefers to draw clues from general weakness in the US dollar while falling to 1.3955, down 0.15% , at the beginning of Good Friday.
Despite the agreement of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), more than 10 million barrels per day of production reduction, the last word of the OPEC + group, including Russia, is still awaited while the Mexico recently countered these measures. Therefore, the meeting of G20 energy ministers today will be important to monitor the final decision.
On the other hand, the US dollar is bearing the brunt of disappointing jobless claims and Michigan consumer sentiment while following optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
It should also be noted that comparatively better coronavirus (COVID-19) situations in Canada than in the United States also weigh on the pair.
In addition to the G20 updates on the long-awaited production cuts, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March will also be crucial as they will show the real impact of the pandemic on pressures on the prices. Forecasts suggest that the US CPI will drop to 1.6% from 2.3% year-on-year while the CPI excluding Food & Energy may drop to 2.3% from 2.4%.
Unless providing a daily close beyond a 21-day SMA level of 1.4160, the pair may continue to decline gradually to a 50-day SMA near 1.3700.