The Australian dollar rebounded quite significantly during Thursday’s trading session after initially falling towards the 50-day EMA. By finding support there, he had the ability to turn around and rally, reaching the handle of 0.65 above. This is of course an important, round and psychologically significant figure, one of the main reasons why we have seen Australian gains so much against the greenback is that the Fed Funds Futures rate for December 2020 went negative during the day , which of course is extremely negative for a currency.
Looking at this chart there is still a little bit of reaction just above it, so I think at this point what we will probably be best served in the meantime is to wait to form a type of exhaustive candlestick in which we can get involved. The pair is extremely sensitive to the world’s risk appetite, but one of the things that has helped propel the Australian dollar higher is that the Australian economy has been less affected by the coronavirus than many others. . This makes sense, because it is much easier to defend a population that is on an island than it is a major continent. Because of this, the Aussie has gotten a bit of an offer in the past two months.
That being said, I still think it is only a matter of time before we move, so by the 200-day EMA, I should get a candlestick that yells “sell this market”. Once I receive this candlestick, maybe something like a shooting star, I am more than willing to sell this market because the risk / reward ratio is so good. The 200-day EMA above is massive resistance, so if we were to break above it, I think the market could take off on the upside for a much larger move that could span several years. At this point, it is more of a “buy-own” situation, as it could be a major trend. Overall, however, this is a market that I think must answer several big questions in the short term, and Friday summer summer could very well be another catalyst to start trading. this pair. I Still believe there is the possibility of falling from here, but clearly the Thursday candlestick was a shot across the arc so to speak.