1. V-shaped recovery and bull market
– While hopes of a V-shaped recovery have been dashed for 2020, the highly effective vaccines expected to be available in the coming months promise a rapid recovery in the second half of 2021.
– But the story could be even bigger. Goldman Sachs claims that “the recovery in commodity prices will actually be the start of a much longer structural bull market for commodities.”
– The investment bank said there were three main drivers: underinvestment in supply, Covid-related fiscal stimulus and a weaker dollar combined with the risk of inflation. This all adds up to a bull market in the years to come.
– Goldman says the 2020s could see a “structural bull market comparable to the 2000s.”
– But the story does not end there. The bank adds that the green stimulus capex could be as big as the BRIC investment 20 years ago, but that developing countries (especially China) will also see an increase in consumer spending that has not happened. not produced last time.
2. OPEC + probably needs to expand
– OPEC + is expected to reduce current production cuts from 7.7 mb / d to just 5.7 mb / d from January. But the group has sent signals that they may have to wait for the increase in production.
– Refining operations in the Atlantic basin – in Europe and the United States – remain at their lowest level in two decades. Much of Europe and the United States is suffering from the worst wave of coronavirus to date, prompting …