Global stock markets have struggled to build up significant upward momentum despite positive news from Pfizer and Moderna on Covid vaccines. The former has officially filed its vaccine for emergency use authorization with the FDA. Simultaneously, coronavirus cases in the United States have soared, hitting new records alongside hospitalization rates.
On Wall Street, the highly technological Nasdaq Composite outperformed, but gains were very modest last week. The US dollar has lost ground against most major currencies due to lower yields on longer-term Treasuries. The latter points to a loss of confidence in medium-term growth prospects. Crude oil prices have outperformed on upside bets that OPEC + will delay the increase in production in 2021.
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Investors have also been caught off guard by a row between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve over unused funds from emergency lending facilities established by the CARES Act. The first wants the second to return some of them to the ministry. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin wants them to be redirected. This is when Congress struggles to pass another deadlocked budget package.
Meanwhile, the pound sterling rose cautiously as the EU and UK appeared to move closer to a Brexit deal. Reports have crossed the threads that a deal could possibly be reached within 2 weeks. Ahead, investors are eyeing the FOMC minutes with expectations for more asset purchases ahead of the December monetary policy announcement.
ECB minutes are also running for the euro, as well as German consumer confidence and the Eurozone. The United States will release the Conference Board Consumer Confidence, which could decline given the recent surge in Covid cases. Expect below-normal liquidity conditions with the US markets going offline on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. What else do we expect for the markets to come?
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Japanese Yen May Rise With Covid Locks Threatening Nikkei 225 Outlook
The momentum of the Japanese yen could be maintained amid rising Covid-19 cases locally and abroad, threatening the prospects for global growth. The USD / JPY appears to be tracking bond yield spreads again.
Gold Price Outlook: XAU / USD Still Ready For Higher Ground
Gold prices fell for a second week in a row as inflation expectations eased after a US policy change. A dispute between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury drives up gold prices, will the momentum accelerate?
Prospects for the British Pound (GBP) muddied by Brexit Groundhog Day
The EU and UK are continuing their post-Brexit trade talks, stressing that a deal is within reach, but neither side is ready to act to get a deal on the line. Again.
Euro forecast: EUR / USD outlook worsens after veto of EU Stimulus Fund
With markets focused on coronavirus vaccines, it was easy to miss last week as Poland and Hungary blocked the EU’s stimulus fund; another negative potential for the euro.
US Dollar May Rise As FOMC Debrief Signals Fed Policy Status Quo
The US dollar may rise as minutes from the November FOMC meeting cement the Fed on a wait-and-see basis, dampening risk appetite even as the outlook for returns becomes more favorable.
Stimulus uncertainty weighted S&P 500 amid viral outbreak
The S&P 500 Index could retreat further due to a lack of clarity of the stimulus amid rapidly rising Covid-19 cases. The IMF presented an uneven recovery outlook, with additional measures needed.
Crude oil price outlook volatile as Covid collides with vaccine hope
Crude oil price volatility is expected to linger as the outlook for the product closely tied to GDP growth remains clouded by short-term downside risks that undermine optimism about the COVID-19 vaccine.
Mexican Peso technical forecast: will critical support be broken?
USD / MXN looks set to renew its bearish momentum in yet another attempt to break through critical support level
Aussie dollar forecast: Australian rally tests major breakout levels
Australian dollar probes multi-year downside resistance – Australian breakthrough coming? These are the levels that count on the weekly AUD / USD technical chart.
Pound Technical Outlook – GBP / USD Slow Grind Mode, Great Resistance Coming
The cable continues to rise within a channel, but has a tough test ahead with long term resistance looming.
Dow Jones, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Forecast for the coming week
After hitting new all-time highs earlier this month, stocks have moved into consolidation mode as they bounce between technical levels ahead of the next major moves. Here are the levels to watch out for.
Gold weekly technical forecast: gold winding for the break-out
The tough fork for gold is at its lowest in the tussle between vaccine optimism and viral concerns.
WEEKLY PERFORMANCE OF THE US DOLLAR AGAINST CURRENCY AND GOLD