Editor’s Note: “2020: Opportunities from Adversity” is a CGTN special series devoted to examining the most surprising events of the past 12 months and their impact on the future. The last episode is on the Chinese economy. Steven Lynch is Managing Director of BritCham China; Jonathan Woetzel is director of the McKinsey Global Institute; and Noah Fraser is Managing Director of the Canada-China Business Council. The article reflects the opinions of experts, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Critical voices for the Chinese economy persist, and since China launched the new “dual circulation” development model, this skepticism has intensified. Some think tanks are concerned that the socialist country is turning in on itself, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic.
But is this the case?
“While COVID-19 has been anything to understand from the Chinese system, it has encouraged foreign direct investment. We have seen it nationally and locally with regards to policies to support UK businesses here in the market, whether through manufacturing or local branches. So I don’t think China will pull out of the global market. I think it will encourage companies to invest more in the Chinese market, both in some provinces , but also nationally too, ”said Steven Lynch.
China is shifting to a consumer-driven economy, but that doesn’t mean it’s closing the door to foreign investment.
“There has been no obvious trend in changing the role of foreign investment or trade in the Chinese economy, except as the Chinese economy is growing faster than the world economy, almost by definition, China is becoming more and more Chinese. As the average Chinese manufacturer now spends more time focusing on the Chinese market than the world market, simply because the Chinese market is growing faster. That’s the change. ” , said Jonathan Woetzel.
In addition to “dual circulation”, China has also announced a shift towards innovation in its 14th five-year plan. Some warn that the country’s attempt to move manufacturing up the value chain will come at the expense of jobs in the West. But Western countries have gone through the same stage of development.
Noah Fraser has suggested that Canada and the United States have gone through their own periods of innovation. Therefore, things like advanced manufacturing are going to cost jobs at one point or another. “But the important thing to focus on in these situations is re-education and upcycling, where you are able to remove the population that is suddenly unemployed and ensure that they have opportunities for growth and advancement in the future. other areas of the economy, ”he said.
Voices threatening the Chinese economy are often heard in Western politics. But it’s worth noting that the market pays little attention to hostile rhetoric.
“As we all know this has been an extremely tough year both domestically here in China but also around the world, so UK companies here in the market are definitely facing a tough time. However, there is a very strong optimism about the market, the investments here in China. More than two-thirds of our companies said they are still dedicated to the market, and in fact 50 percent of these companies will invest more this year and 2021 than in previous years, which once again shows the potential of the Chinese market. and potential growth, ”Steven said.
It is not an empty speech. In August, foreign direct investment in China jumped 18.7% from the previous year. Skeptical voices will never die, but the reality points to a resilient and open Chinese economy.
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