It’s a new year and we’re taking a look at what 2021 might hold for electric vans, electric cars, higher volumes, and more.
Last summer I called 2021 the year of the electric car and today, the first day of the year, we are discussing a few trends that we believe will make it happen.
Electric vans
These aren’t as important everywhere, but in the United States, pickup trucks are key to accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles.
Pickup trucks are the largest segment of passenger vehicles, and unless that changes, we need electric pickup options to achieve mass adoption of electric vehicles.
2021 is the year when these first electric pickup options will arrive, although I have tempered my expectations from early 2020.
At this point I’m pretty sure we’re going to see deliveries of the Rivian R1T, at least some Hummer EVs, maybe Lordstown Endurance pickups to some fleet customers, and that’s about it.
Officially, Tesla says the Cybertruck should arrive in late 2021, but I have my doubts about that given the complexity of putting the truck into production.
I prefer to keep my hopes low and be pleasantly surprised.
As for the electric Ford F150, the manufacturer has already postponed it to mid-2022.
Therefore, I believe that the actual volume of electric pickup trucks delivered in 2021 will be relatively small, certainly compared to the overall volume of pickup trucks in the United States, but the start of electric pickup deliveries is still a milestone for electric vehicles in the US.
This will slowly start to change the mindset of pickup truck buyers and set the stage for when more models and higher volumes come, which will likely be in 2022-2023.
Increased volumes of electric cars
While the volumes of electric vans will be low in 2021, there are higher volumes of electric vehicles that will be launched this year.
The premium segment is going electric this year with the Audi Q4 e-tron, Mercedes-Benz EQA and BMW iNEXT all hitting the market.
With so many great EVs starting to populate the high-end segments, it’s going to become difficult for buyers of high-end electric cars to decide whether to buy a gasoline vehicle.
In the high-end segment, after some delays, the launch of the Lucid Air promises to be solid for this year. I don’t expect a lot of volume from them in 2021, but they have some exciting tech and performance stuff. If successful this year, it could prepare them for a ramp-up in 2022.
When it comes to cheaper vehicles, Nissan is finally following the Leaf with the Ariya electric crossover, and that should be a decent volume.
Additionally, we have EVs like the VW ID.4 and the Mustang Mach-E, which were technically launched in 2020, but they’re going to arrive in much higher volumes in 2021.
But if we are talking about volume, we have to talk about the Tesla Model Y in 2021.
The vehicle launched in 2020 and Tesla has reached volume production, but this will continue to increase massively in 2021.
Let’s not forget that Tesla plans to start producing the Model Y at three more factories (Gigafactory Berlin, Gigafactory Shanghai and Gigafactory Texas) in 2021, which will result in the production of the Model Y at four different factories on three different continents in 2021.
I have no doubt that the Tesla Model Y will reach insane production and delivery volumes in 2021.
Battery cost and performance
Unsurprisingly, I think 2021 will continue the trend of lowering battery costs and improving performance.
We should even see a few automakers hitting the oft-discussed $ 100 per kWh mark.
This will make electric vehicles not only cheaper in terms of total cost of ownership, but also the sticker price more clearly for more people in the industry, which should speed up the electrification plans of many car manufacturers who have fallen behind on this front.
The minds of consumers on electric vehicles
AT Electrek, for some time now, we have been pushing the idea that there will be a massive shift in the mindset of car buyers when it comes to electric vehicles.
They will see the potential for future resale value of gasoline-powered cars plummet and start to take this into account when purchasing their new car, resulting in a massive shift in demand for electric vehicles.
We predict that by 2025, only a small fraction of new car buyers will not see the benefits of electric vehicles and will be able to find an electric car that meets their needs at the right price.
Most industry analysts don’t see this happening until 2030-2040, but we don’t agree.
As usual, analysts will speed up their timeline in 2021 as this becomes more evident, and hopefully automakers will adjust their plan, as it’s clear at this point that the industry as a whole is not. ready for this change.
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