The Yemen Risk Snapshot is a risk identification report released every six months that describes the main emerging risks in Yemen that could affect the humanitarian situation over the next six months. It aims to inform the humanitarian community of possible changes in the context and humanitarian needs in Yemen, in order to facilitate preparedness, risk management and response. ACAPS regularly monitors identified risks and monitors previously identified risks that remain of concern (the “Watchlist”), and issues monthly updates and ad hoc alerts as contexts change.
The depletion of foreign exchange reserves drives up inflation; erosion of purchasing power and high food prices lead to increased levels of food insecurity.
High inflation, fueled by a further depreciation of the Yemeni riyal, drastically reduces purchasing power, pushing many Yemenis further into poverty. All major foreign currency inflows into Yemen have been hit hard by the conflict, the global oil price crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Internal economic warfare, made possible by a divided monetary system, has resulted in a divergence of the riyal’s exchange rates – currently a 45% difference – in areas controlled by the two main parties to the conflict. Food and commodity prices continue to rise, along with the inflation of the riyal and at varying rates depending on the exchange rate difference between north and south.
The reduced ability to deliver assistance – due to further cuts in humanitarian funding – affects millions of people in need.
The reduced response capacity, due to further cuts in humanitarian funding, leaves millions of people without access to humanitarian assistance for food, health care, protection and other needs. At the end of December, the UN received $ 1.69 billion for Yemen – only half of the $ 3.4 billion needed for aid operations in Yemen in 2020. A second global wave of COVID- 19 has an impact on the national economies of donor countries, resulting in reduced global humanitarian funding. Another cause of reduced funding is the restricted operating environment in Yemen, which makes it difficult to deliver aid in accordance with humanitarian principles.
An attempt by Ansar Allah to enter the town of Marib escalates the conflict, resulting in massive displacement, civilian casualties, disruption of livelihoods and lack of humanitarian access.
Massive displacement, disruption of livelihoods and restricted humanitarian access are occurring following an offensive by Ansar Allah to control the governorate of Marib and reach the town of Marib. The worst-case scenario could see between 75,000 and 150,000 households displaced to Marib Al Wadi and to Hadramaut. Since the beginning of 2020, the conflict around the governorate of Marib between Ansar Allah and the local tribes supported by the government of Yemen (GoY) and the coalition led by Saudi Arabia has intensified. Fighting intensified in August and September. If the fighting continues without significant progress on both sides, humanitarian partners have estimated that 3,500 households located near the front lines could be displaced.
The sudden decline in the provision of public services in GoY-controlled areas forces millions of people to require external assistance for their basic needs, while humanitarian access is also reduced.
The GoY’s ability to provide public services – mainly water, electricity and fuel, but also the payment of civil servants’ salaries – is affected by political instability, clashes and reduced support from the government. ‘Saudi Arabia. If Ansar Allah took control of Marib, the loss of credibility of the US government would likely be exploited by political opponents. Civil servants’ salaries are likely to go unpaid for an extended period of time, which, combined with declining purchasing power, prevents people from buying food, fuel and other basic items.