The Australian dollar fluctuated in early trading as the market was weighed down by strong data from the services and construction sectors. According to Markit, the country’s service sector PMI rose from 53.4 in February to 55.5 in March amid rising demand and optimism. The construction index for the same period rose from 57.4 to 61.8. These numbers came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided on the interest rate. He left the rates, quantitative easing and yield curve control program unchanged and expressed concern about the rise in house prices.
Crude oil prices remained under pressure even after some positive indicators. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), inventories fell more than 2.6 million barrels last week after rising more than 3.9 million barrels a week earlier. This decrease was more than the expected 1.35 million barrels. EIA will publish its opinion today. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic forecast for the year to 6% from a previous estimate of 5.5%. This will be the fastest growing since 1980. A stronger global economy usually has a positive effect on crude oil prices due to demand.
Today, the focus will be on the services PMIs published by Markit. Overall, analysts expect the service sector to improve significantly in March as many countries continued to open up. The data is due a few days after the company releases a relatively high manufacturing PMI. Traders will also keep an eye on the latest trading data from the US and Canada. In the US, they see the trade deficit rise from over $ 68 billion to $ 70 billion. In Canada, analysts believe the trade surplus will exceed $ 1 billion due to higher oil prices.
EUR / USD
The daily chart shows that the EUR / USD pair fell to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1696 last week. The pair also formed a yellow downward channel. At the current price, the pair is in the upper part of the channel. MACD is also on the lower side of the neutral line. Consequently, the recent rally could be a bounce to a dead cat, meaning that price could resume the downtrend as bears target the downside of the channel at 1.1700.
US dollar / Swiss franc
USD / CHF fell sharply yesterday on the back of a relatively weak US dollar. It fell to an intraday low of 0.9300. On the hourly chart, price is well below the 25-day moving average, while oscillators such as the DeMarker and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have dipped below the oversold level. The pair is also forming a small bearish flag. Consequently, it could break below with the next key target at 0.9250.
AUD / USD
AUD / USD fell marginally to 0.7655 in the Asian session. On the four-hour chart, the price rallied slightly above the 25-day moving average. It also forms an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. In addition, the MACD has moved above the neutral line while the RSI is rallying. The pair may resume its uptrend in the near term as the bulls target the key resistance at 0.7705.