Commodity prices traded on Thursday on an upbeat note, continuing the strong trend from the previous session. On Wednesday, bullion prices showed volatile trading, remaining in a narrow trading range. Non-ferrous metals rose on stronger demand and a weaker dollar, while crude oil futures traded under pressure following the release of inventory data. Here’s a look at how different products behave in today’s market.
Bullion prices traded steady as the COMEX spot gold price was around $ 1,740 an ounce, while the COMEX spot silver traded unchanged at $ 25.10 per ounce in morning trading. Precious metals continued to trade at a modest pace as traders and investors tracked dollar and bond yields in the Fed meeting minutes. The Fed Minutes showed that the central bank is committed to its ultra-low interest rate policy, tracking the recovery of the US economy. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways during the day.
MCX Gold June resistance is at Rs. 46600 for 10 grams with support at the price of Rs. 45900 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver support in May is at Rs. 65800 per kg, resistance at Rs. 67800 per kg.
Forecast: crude oil
Crude prices declined, while NYMEX WTI’s benchmark crude oil price fell half a percentage point in morning trading to $ 59.41 a barrel. Crude oil prices fell after an unexpected surge in US gasoline inventories despite a decline in crude oil inventories. EIA data showed that weekly gasoline inventories rose by 4.04 million barrels against the forecast of consumption of 0.21 million barrels. Weak demand and abundant supply limited the upside potential for oil prices. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways and lower during the day.
April support for MCX Crude Oil is at Rs. 4340 per barrel with resistance in rupees. 4480 per barrel.
Forecast: base metals
The non-ferrous metals complex traded strongly as most metals continued to trade in positive territory amid optimism about rising demand and a weakening dollar. Stock index gains also supported trading in non-ferrous metals higher after the FOMC meeting minutes. Non-ferrous metals are supported by strong economic data, while global vaccine rollouts have boosted demand outlook. Rising steel demand is driving the purchase of zinc and nickel, while copper prices are supported by supply concerns from Chile, despite rising inventories. Non-ferrous metals are expected to trade sideways throughout the day amid positive global signals.
MCX Copper support in April is at Rs. 687 and resistance at Rs. 698.
MCX Zinc support in April is at Rs. 223, resistance at Rs. 230.
MCX Nickel support in April is at Rs. 1240 with resistance in rupees. 1290.
(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities)
MCX Gold June futures continued to rise after breaking through immediate resistance at Rs 46,140. Previously, the price formed a bullish double bottom pattern, so according to this pattern, the ideal target price would be Rs 46,645. Meanwhile, the positive crossover of the 5-day and 21-day EMA further exacerbated the recovery in gold prices.
The positive divergence between RSI and price exacerbated the rally. The strength index (RSI) is currently hovering around 63, which indicates the stability of the trend. Thus, during the day, the price is expected to move in the range of 45,700-46640 rupees with a sideways shift towards the positive.
Buy MCX Gold June at INR 46,100 with a target of INR 46,640 and stop loss at INR 45,700.
MCX Silver May futures also followed the lead of gold and moved higher after breaking the middle line of the Bollinger Band (65960). Meanwhile, the price is trading in a descending channel with channel resistance around Rs 67,000-67,200. The price must break the resistance of the trend line to continue to rise to Rs 68,200. The rebound in the momentum indicator (RSI) has amplified the rebound in price.
On the other hand, immediate support is held at Rs 65,950, followed by Rs 64,900. Thus, during the day, the price is expected to move in the range of 64,900-67,200 rupees with a sideways uptrend. Only a sustained move above Rs 67,200 would expand upside potential towards the next key resistance at Rs 68,200.
Buy MCX Silver May at Rs 65,750 with a target of Rs 67,200 and a stop loss of Rs 64,900.
(Ravindra Rao, VP of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities)