Australian Dollar Price Technical Forecast: Short Term Trading Levels
- Australian dollar updating the technical level of trading – daily and intraday charts
- AUD / USD approaching multi-week range / slope support
- Immediate support 7700, 7675 (key) – resistance / bwitty invalidation 7770
The Australian dollar is defensive against U.S. dollar Post office-RBA however, the AUD / USD pair fell more than 0.7% in early US trading. A decline in Aussie is within reach of key support at multi-week range lows and we are looking for a possible price inflection here earlier in the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that are relevant to AUD /U.S. dollar technical price charts. Consideration my last Strategy webinar for in-depth breakdown this aussie customization and much more.
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD / USD daily
Chart prepared Michael Boutros, Technical strategist; AUD / USD on Tradingview
Technical forecast: IN last month Australian Dollar Price Prediction we noted that the AUD / USD pair “the breakout is now approaching the original uptrend resistance targets. From a trading point of view, try to reduce long positions / raise protective stops as you approach the upper parallel / 7800 – area of interest for a possible jump / exhaustion of prices IF reached. ” The aussie posted an intraday high of 7817 before bouncing back from the pullback, now testing multi-week range support at 7701/08 technical merger – region defined by 38.2% Fibonacci RApril range tracking and 2021 annual opening target. Please note that multi-month trend line support is just below and a break / close below would be required to suggest a larger reversal is underway. Key resistance is stable at 2018 YoY / 61.8% YoY retracement on 7801/25…
Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD / USD 120 min.
Notes: A closer look at the Aussie price movement reveals that the AUD / USD pair is trading in a downward movement. pitchfork formation from the April highs, with the weekly opening range forming slightly higher 77-a pen. Original Rresistance stands on 7757 with short-term bearish invalidity now downgraded to 7771… A break below may reveal further support targets at 50% retracement level / midline at ~7675 supported by a 61.8% pullback on 7641– look for a larger reaction there, IF reached.
Bottom line: Australian dollar is testing the lower border of the multi-week price range with the monthly opening range taking shape just above the slope support – we are observing a breakout. From a trading point of view, this is a good area to cut short / lower protective stops – be on the lookout for depletion of the upper before the upper parallel if price does move lower with a break / close below. 7675 it should be noted that the sale resumed at the end of April. Review my last Australian Weekly USD Price Forecast for a closer look at the long-term technical trading levels of AUD / USD.
For a complete picture of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Fundamentals of the technical analysis series on Bcreature Traiding Stragedy
Australian Dollar Traders Sentiment – AUD / USD Price Chart
- Summary IG customer opinion shows traders are net short on AUD / USD – ratio is -1.18 (45.84% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions 10.23% lower than yesterday and 15.46% higher than last week.
- Short positions14.13% higher than yesterday and 17.56% lower than last week.
- We usually take the opposite view of crowd sentiment and the fact that traders are net short suggests that the AUD / USD price may continue to rise. Traders have more net short positions than yesterday, but fewer net short positions last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us another mixed AUD / USD trading shift due to sentimentality point of view.
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– Written Michael Boutros, Forex Strategist DailyFX
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