Although you don’t hear it, bitcoin (BTC) collapsed. A crash is a classic 25% drop as a result of a sudden sharp movement.
This is the only diagram that interests me right now. This shows that Bitcoin crashed in early March and then again in early April. Although it recovered both times, it leaves a diagram like this:
For believers, this is another short pause on the way to $ 1 million per bitcoin, but for others, it’s a clear pinnacle.
First, here’s something from me. I love cryptocurrency. I own bitcoin and ethereum, small positions but important to some people. I have a ton of all kinds of crypto tokens and I will enter and can exit any cryptocurrency you find on the list. My positioning at the moment is, I am on the sidelines because I think BTC has reached / is at its peak and we are in for a bearish period before the next bull run around the next halvening.
Now this is a diagram for any less than 100% Hodler:
This is the previous boom / bubble. Apparently Bitcoin and Ethereum have come off.
Unpacking this a bit, here’s what worries us about this diagram:
Why? Because this is where we are today:
If you have even one bone of technical analysis in your body, it will be alarming, especially with regard to the initial growth of bitcoin, the 2017 pattern has repeated itself.
You can add this diagram as well:
This two-step flat vertical has always been a very useful top indicator for me, but you should always be skeptical about voodoo charting.
It seems to me that cryptocurrency has evolved from a consistent bull market to a disjointed market where the underlying trend cannot be seen through the foam.
DeFi (decentralized finance), which I played after leaving Ethereum and bitcoin to others, went from a 10x game to a volatile percentage game, and NFTs (non-fungible tokens) survived their week in the sun and experienced their first boom. … meanwhile a cycle of bubbles and bustles.
My position – that cryptocurrencies, DeFi, NFT and all other categories that are or should be born will be for the bull of generations – is unchanged, but if Bitcoin reaches its peak, then everything that suffers will suffer from the bearish part of the crypto cycle that it is. transferred. more than once.
If Bitcoin breaks out again, then the sky will be the limit again, and if that happens, I suspect I’ll go play DeFi again, where the upside is again a multiple, not a percentage. I would be extremely surprised to see this, although I had such an opportunity.
With gratitude to Mark Twain, I expect there will be more to the future than just rhyme.
Clem Chambers is the CEO of a private investor website. ADVFN.com and author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and Cryptocurrency Trading: A Beginner’s Guide…
Chambers won the 2018 Business Market Commentary Journalist of the Year Award at the State Street UK Institutional Press Awards.