They say that you should never trade while drunk, which is true, and I recently added to this idea by saying that you should never invest or trade when you are sick. So, here’s an example of what you might think of when you got sick, in my case after being properly beaten with the Pfizer vaccine, which I’m happy to say is just worth avoiding Covid mishaps. Been there, did it, almost bought a T-shirt.
So here’s the setup. First, let’s get the vertigo up and running.
Crash – 25% off, but for a cryptocurrency, a 25% drop is nothing. Bubble destruction is 75%. We already had 50% top-down falls.
Now, let’s put Bitcoin in context, and you can play around with all these diagrams yourself on ADVFN:
You can match these trends however you want, but they don’t look optimistic. Now in my delirium I see this:
I admit this is extreme, but it’s not just the 102-degree fever, it’s that I’m surprised to see the data.
Ethereum transaction costs have plummeted. Hooray, now I can make small transactions without nailing the price, that’s great, isn’t it? May be. Transaction costs have been tightly tied to the price of Ethereum along the growth path, are they going to unravel now? May be.
Transaction costs are a good indicator of the usefulness of a system and the robustness of its ecosystem. The high value of the coin comes from this utility, but if it goes to the tail, then the price.
To some extent, Ethereum’s transaction costs are a limiting factor for the network, especially for low-value transactions, but they are also a ratchet for high-value transactions. Ethereum transaction fees have returned to their January level when Ethereum was priced at $ 1000-1200 per coin.
I’m having a hard time giving up on the transaction fee signal when he telegraphed Ethereum’s rise so clearly:
Until the cryptocurrency crash has exhausted itself, it seems easy to say that the bottom is much lower. Ethereum has many catalysts ahead: firing miners, introducing a deflationary model, and implementing a Proof-of-Stake system. This is a country of unforeseen consequences, which for me are always bearish.
In terms of optimism, no one draws attention to Ethereum with wild statements, frenzied hype, or brings it to the attention of regulators as a threat to humanity.
However, crypto fall is already here and winter is approaching and the next stage down seems pretty close.
Like a frail bear, it’s time to wait.
Clem Chambers is the CEO of a private investor website. ADVFN.com and author of 101 Ways to Pick Stock Market Winners and Cryptocurrency Trading: A Beginner’s Guide…
Chambers won the 2018 Business Market Commentary Journalist of the Year at the State Street UK Institutional Press Awards.