Commodity prices traded weak on Thursday after mixed trading in the previous session. Bullion prices traded in a lower trading range on Wednesday on the back of a stronger dollar, while crude oil prices eased and ended in inventory data on the Red Mail. Non-ferrous metals also remained in a tight trading range due to lack of economic data and mixed global signals. The dollar index increased by 0.05% by the end of the day. Here’s a look at how different products behave in today’s market.
Bullion prices traded weak Thursday as the COMEX spot gold price was around $ 1,886 an ounce, while the COMEX spot silver traded slightly down to $ 27.70 an ounce in morning trading. Precious metals remained in a lower trading range with a strong dollar despite falling US Treasury yields. Market participants are awaiting new signals from US inflation data, which should be released today, as US CPI data will bring more clarity to the Fed’s actions. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell below 1.50%, followed by a strong auction. We expect that bullion prices will trade sideways during the day with a decrease.
MCX Gold August resistance is at Rs. 49500 for 10 grams with support at the price of Rs. 48800 by 10 grams.
MCX Silver support in July is at Rs. 70,200 per kg, resistance at Rs. 72800 per kg.
Forecast: crude oil
Crude prices fell Thursday as benchmark NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 0.77% in morning trading to $ 69.42 a barrel. Crude oil prices traded under pressure from concerns about demand due to the summer boom in the US, linked to increased inventories. US gasoline inventories rose more than 7 million barrels, resulting in a second weekly gain, while weekly crude oil inventories fell 5.2 million barrels. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways and lower during the day.
Support for MCX Crude Oil in June is at Rs. 5020 per barrel with resistance in rupees. 5160 per barrel.
Forecast: base metals
Non-ferrous metal prices were weak on Thursday, with most metals trading under pressure in morning trading. Non-ferrous metals traded weakly on concerns about demand from China and mixed global signals ahead of US inflation data. The data on consumer prices in the US will be one of the last important economic reports ahead of the next Fed meeting. Copper prices are fluctuating on mixed fundamentals and supply concerns from Chile. Non-ferrous metals are expected to trade in a sideways downward trend during the day.
MCX Copper support in June is at Rs. 735 and resistance at Rs. 748.
MCX Zinc support is at Rs in June. 232, resistance at Rs. 242.
MCX Nickel support in June is at Rs. 1290 with resistance in rupees. 1350.
(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities)
MCX Gold August futures are trading sideways between rupees. 49400-48700 in the last few days. The price holds firmly above the breakout of the trend line and moves within the upward channel, indicating a continuation of the bullish trend. Immediate resistance for August futures exists at around Rs. 49400 and then Rs. 49700. At the downside, immediate support is held at around Rs. 48600 and then Rs. 48400. The RSI hovers around 60 on the daily charts, supporting the bullish case. Hence, any fall towards the support of Rs. The 48800-48750 zone will attract buyers and push prices towards the rupee. 49400-49700 zone. Only close below Rs. 8400 would nullify the review and the trend would become neutral.
Buy MCX Gold August for Rs. 48750 for the purpose of Rs. 49400 and stop loss at Rs. 48400.
MCX Silver July futures have been hovering in a narrow range for the past couple of weeks. Previously, prices have seen a good rebound from the lower support of the Bollinger Bands around Rs. 70,000 and closed above the center line of the Rs. 71750, which neutralized the bearish price sentiment. The RSI hovers around 50 on the daily charts, indicating a sideways trend. Thus, in the short term, the price may continue to move in the rupee range. 70100-72850 with side slope. Only close the breakout above Rs. The 72850-73500 zone will expand the potential for growth.
The trading range for July MCX Silver futures is between Rs. 70100-72850
(Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities)