Commodity prices were mixed on Friday after firms traded in the previous session. Bullion prices rose on Thursday amid fears of inflation and a weakening dollar. Non-ferrous metals continued to trade within a range with a bearish bias on mixed global indicators after the release of US inflation data. Crude oil prices rose on the back of strong demand, mostly in summer. The dollar index fell slightly around 90. Here’s a look at how different commodities are performing in today’s market.
Bullion traded firmly on Friday, with the COMEX spot gold at around $ 1,900 an ounce, while the COMEX spot silver traded slightly higher to $ 28.06 per ounce in morning trading. Precious metals traded higher amid growing concerns over US inflation and comments from the ECB President. Faster-than-expected inflation in the US led to an increase in bullion purchases. The ECB President reaffirmed the need for faster bond purchases to stimulate the eurozone economy. We expect bullion prices to trade sideways during the day.
Gold resistance for August is at the Rupee level throughout the day. 49500 for 10 grams with support at the price of Rs. 48900 per 10 grams.
MCX Silver support in July is at Rs. 71200 per kg, resistance at Rs. 73500 per kg.
Forecast: crude oil
Crude prices were down on Friday, with NYMEX WTI crude oil benchmark price declining 0.34% in morning trading to $ 70.05 a barrel. Crude oil prices have pushed some of their previous gains down, but managed to get closer to their third weekly gains. OPEC raised its forecast for demand for the second half of the year, with fuel demand in the US and Europe recovering to pre-COVID levels. We expect crude oil prices to trade sideways during the day.
Support for MCX Crude Oil in June is at Rs. 5060 per barrel with resistance in rupees. 5160 per barrel.
Forecast: base metals
On Friday, prices for major metals were trading steadily, with most metals trading in the green in the morning. Non-ferrous metals traded higher on the back of rising US CPI and positive stock indices. Copper prices are capped by upside potential as BHP Group averted a strike at its second largest copper mine in Chile after workers at Spence accepted a final wage offer on the last day of mediated negotiations. Non-ferrous metals are expected to trade sideways with an increase during the day.
MCX Copper support in June is at Rs. 735 and resistance at Rs. 745.
MCX Zinc support is at Rs in June. 235, resistance at Rs. 242.
MCX Nickel support in June is at Rs. 1310 with resistance in rupees. 1370.
(Tapan Patel, Senior Analyst (Commodities) at HDFC Securities)
MCX Gold August futures appear to be in a consolidation phase after Thursday’s recovery. The primary trend remains bullish as the trending channel is well positioned along with the bullish crossover between the 8 and 21-day EMAs. Immediate resistance for August futures remains at around Rs. 49450 and then Rs. 49700. At the downside, immediate support is held at around Rs. 48600 and then Rs. 48400. The RSI hovers around 58 on the daily charts, supporting the bullish case. Only close below Rs. 48600 will refute the opinion and the trend will become neutral.
Buy MCX Gold August for Rs. 48,900 for the purpose of Rs. 49450 and stop loss at Rs. 48600.
MCX Silver July futures have been hovering in a narrow range for the past couple of weeks. Price is facing tough resistance from the upper band of the symmetrical triangle around Rs. 72850-73600 zone. Likewise, the bottom band received support from an inverted HNS notch around Rs. 70,000. The RSI hovers around 54 on the daily charts, indicating a sideways trend. Thus, in the short term, the price may continue to move in the rupee range. 70100-72850 with side slope. Only close the breakout above Rs. 72850 will push the price further towards the next rupee resistance zone. 73600-74100.
Buy MCX Silver July for Rs. 71600 for the purpose of Rs. 73000 and stop loss at Rs. 70600.
(Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities)